Week 6 Fixtures: ETF2L Premiership Season 23

Also posted here: http://etf2l.org/2016/03/02/sideshows-view-week-6-fixtures/

The second to last week of ETF2L Season 23 is upon us, and surprisingly the playoff run is still open for almost every team. That certainly won't be true after this week, and four teams in contention will be incredibly disappointed with their results. Perhaps they shouldn't be, given that even the bottom of the table teams will have better records than their predecessors in most previous seasons. Teams have been trading maps like Pokemon cards recently, and it shows no signs of stopping.

cp_gullywash

koth_product

ETF2L Premiership Season 23

Week 6

dd+5 abs    vs.    LEGO     

         Foreskings    vs.    Perilous Gaming 

 Planet Express    vs.    nerdRage         

     Publiclir.se    vs.    Team Infused 

Our maps for this week are Gullywash and Product. Product always throws a curveball into the mix; as a completely different game-mode, teams practise koth less, and it also has quirks that may play to the team's strengths or cause vulnerabilities to show. Let's take a look at the fixtures this week and how the teams line up:

dd+5 abs vs. LEGO

LEGO have had a strange issue since the beginning of Season 22. It's certainly not one they have ever faced before then, wallowing at the bottom of Premiership or sandbagging in High without sorex and dmoule. The issue they're now facing is that they're over-rated. LEGO's 4th place finish in Season 22 was a close feat, their record of 6 wins to 8 losses edging out Serpents by 2 points. The hype began with their 'upset' performance against The Last Resort, and a Golden Cap loss against #tf2center, but they then went on to have a mediocre performance for the rest of the season. They've had a similarly mediocre beginning to Season 23, trading maps with Infused and Foreskings, but LEGO are beginning to pull away from the pack. Week 4 gave them 6 crucial points against Planet Express, and tying with Perilous last week was vital for Josh's crew. dd+5 abs have had reasonable showings against all of the lower level teams this season, but unfortunately haven't been able to convert many of the maps into points. They have to take all 6 points from this fixture and their game against Foreskings (along with a good dollop of luck) in order to make playoffs.

Roster Showdown

Honey Badger          Condom         

chappie          Dr. Phil

 qnx          Josh

    dd5f   dmoule

   ixy   sorex

Sjoeberg  iZon        

Map Analysis

Gullywash and Product have been good maps for LEGO over the past two seasons. They've managed to have close games against nerdRage and #tf2center on Product, and beat TLR on Gullywash along with taking #tf2center to a Golden Cap. They have slipped up a few times, notably against Perilous last week and during the Challengers Cup, but these are good maps for LEGO to solidify their position as the 3rd place ETF2L team. For dd+5 abs, they have very little history on these two maps. There is no reason to believe that dd+5 abs consider these maps strong for their team, but Product always produces closer results than 5cp maps.

Predictions

Let's go against the grain and tackle Product first. Due to the points distribution and rules for koth in ETF2L, this map can only be won or lost. The team making it to 3 rounds won will take all 3 points, and I cannot see this being dd+5 abs. I don't doubt that they will make it close, and this is an opportunity for chappie to show himself as an upcoming top level demoman, but dd5f will simply not be able to resist the urge to whip out his Market Gardener and [P-REC] BOOKMARK. The team doesn't have enough synergy in the way they push, and doesn't have the DM advantage on any role barring possibly chappie. LEGO should have those 3 points in the bag. Gullywash will be a close game, but with LEGO in control. They should be able to dominate on the midfights with superior soldier deathmatch, and sorex flanking should seal the deal. My prediction is that all 6 points will go to LEGO, and it will be a car-crash for them should they lose points on Gullywash (or even worse, Product). This should be the end for dd+5 abs' dreams of ETF2L playoffs.

Foreskings vs. Perilous Gaming

Perilous can now not be knocked out of their playoff spot. For them, it is simple a matter of which seed they take. The 'ladder' system of the playoffs puts a large emphasis on the seeding you get in the regular season, and being able to get a #1 seed would be a huge boost for Perilous. For that, they need all of the available points against Foreskings and nerdRage. At the very least, this week they'll be looking for points to make sure they finish 2nd. For Foreskings this fixture is incredibly important. The team outperformed moderate expectations this season and are unlikely contenders for the playoffs. They took a map from Publiclir, LEGO, and Infused, and if they can take 6 points from dd+5 abs next week then they would only need a generous gift from Perilous to make it to the finish line.

Roster Showdown

Zangetsu          kos         

Spary          spudd

 wackey          Silentes 

    JackyLegs   Sideshow     

   Shulqiple   Thalash     

     s0rex  Astt        

Map Analysis

Perilous are strong on Gullywash, and poor on Product. These are two of their most polar opposite maps, as shown through map bans and picks in recent cups, and results over the last two seasons. They should feel comfortable on both maps given the deathmatch advantage and ability for Thalash to snipe, but if Foreskings have been putting a lot of effort into Product there is potential for an upset here. Foreskings' history suggests a reasonable degree of proficiency on Gullywash, but their lack of time spent playing in Premiership or tournaments paints a muddy picture.

Predictions

This matchup should not come down to the maps. Although Foreskings has proved to be a mid-Premiership team, the team is heavily outclassed on every position bar the demoman and roamer role. On Gullywash, which both teams favour, this advantage should weigh heavily in favour of Perilous, and on Product the quirks of the map can be overcome with a large deathmatch advantage. The players to make the difference for Foreskings will have to be JackyLegs and s0rex: if they can put up performances alongside Spary, then Foreskings have a chance to take points. Foreskings have a high chance of leaving this fixture empty handed, but any upset is likely to take the full three points on Product.

Planet Express vs. nerdRage

nerdRage have been untouched since their Golden Cap on sunshine earlier in the season. It would be truly difficult for them to not finish in 1st place, but Perilous would be very happy if Planet Express could trip up kaidus' boys. Planet Express need as many points as possible to make playoffs and overtake Publiclir. They won't be expecting any points from this game against nerdRage, and will be hoping that LEGO crush Publiclir. Unfortunately that still puts them in a situation where Infused have to give Planet Express 4 more points than they give to Planet Express. It's technically possible, but this is almost definitely the end for Planet Express' playoff dreams. They need a miracle in this game.

Roster Showdown

             Nursey          Permzilla         

      iikq          kaidus

 DamnEasy          kaptain      

     zoob   Drackk

    pierz   Stark  

            sheepy  Hafficool        

Map Analysis

Gullywash is a potential weakness for nerdRage. Not because they're incompetent at the map, but because other teams tend to be favour this map above others. When against LEGO, Perilous, or previous top teams like TLR and #tf2center, nerdRage have had much closer games than on other maps. Planet Express seem to have no such prowess on Gullywash however, so nerdRage should still easily crush them. Product is classically a map that scouts will dominate on, along with demomen. pierz and sheepy are very strong, but are a level below Stark and Hafficool. The disciplined pocket role that Hafficool plays works perfectly on Product, and while Stark and Pierz are both likely to go ham, the difference is going to be made in Haffi's clean-up and denial ability. Planet Express (though I've seen none of their games on Product) should be a good team on koth; their team-fight ability and flow is one of the stronger elements of their game. I expect them to put up a reasonable show, but still be outclassed by nerdRage and struggle against the forward hold.

Predictions

It would be outrageous for Planet Express to take points from this fixture. It will require an incredibly bad day from nerdRage, with godly performances from pierz and sheepy, to put points on the board on Product. Gullywash is a lost cause. Focusing on Product will also have the advantage of preparing Planet Express for the Week 7 official against Team Infused, which is the last chance saloon for zoob's gang of misfits.

Publiclir.se vs. Team Infused

These two teams hold a lot of power in this Premiership playoff race. Publiclir are in the best position to take fourth place, currently in 4th place with upcoming games against mid-Premiership teams Infused and LEGO. Team Infused have even easier games, but unfortunately even taking all 12 points from Publiclir and Planet Express might not take them into a playoff spot. It would be an incredible tale for Infused, if they were to save their best performances until the end of the season to rocket from last place to a playoff spot. Is this reasonable for Infused? Do they have the ability to beat Publiclir and Planet Express? I would argue yes. Infused have some very serious issues with their team, and when they're uncoordinated it's awful to watch, but their performances against LEGO, Perilous, and Foreskings give them hope. Infused may buckle completely against these upcoming teams (as they did against dd+5 abs on Granary) and define themselves as purely an upset team, but they still have it with them to end this season very respectably.

Roster Showdown

     ondkaja          skeej         

 Smirre          adysky

 Medico          Quik      

    AMS   Thaigrr

    atomic   Hank       

            fl1p   Dennia        

Map Analysis

Publiclir seem shaky on these maps. Overall, the trend for Publiclir has been upwards since bringing in ondkaja on medic, but both of these teams have serious issues with cohesion. They have a lot of players who make individual plays, and these maps will be incredibly messy. Product in particular promises to be a ridiculous affair, as neither of these teams have the discipline to avoid chasing frags and overextending once they're in possession of the point. 

Predictions

Gullywash should be a very close game. Publiclir are a better team but perform worse on this map, while Infused should be the underdog but have a much better chance than the tables suggest. Medico and AMS get overzealous on the midfights, while atomic and fl1p seem to munch damage leading to frequent collapses against teams with better mids. Infused have an opportunity to punch slightly above their weight and take both maps from this fixture, but they have to be on their A-game. Sloppiness from both teams is expected, but this game has real repercussions for how all of the mid-low Premiership teams stack up. At the end of the day, Publiclir are in a far better position to take playoffs; this may provide the motivation they'll need to out-perform their map flaws.